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当今世界正处在新一轮科技革命与产业变革深入发展和世界大变局深刻演变的重大历史交汇期,新技术群发式突破与融合发展正将人类社会推进一个全新的时代。新科技革命正在深刻重塑国际权力的内涵与形态,基于技术的权力已成为支撑其他国际权力的支柱,围绕技术权力的争夺和秩序构建将是21世纪国际战略竞争的核心,这将国际政治从"地缘政治时代"推向"技术政治时代",既而孕育出"技术政治战略"。美国新的战略思维和战略意识形态塑造日渐清晰,正在"技术多边主义"框架下布局构建"技术联盟",搭建"分层金字塔"结构技术霸权体系,争夺战略新空间控制权,重构战略威慑能力与威慑体系。在技术政治战略下,国际战略思维、理论、体系、方法、路径等都在发生系统性变革,多域空间融合的国际战略理论体系亟待构建。
Abstract：(1)唐新华:《新型基础设施在国家治理现代化建设中的功能研究》,《中国科学院院刊》2021年第1期,第79—85页。
(1)Tang Xinhua and Zhou Jianjun,"A future Role for Cascade Hydropower in the Electricity System of China," Energy Policy,Vol.51,2012,pp.358-363.
(2)唐新华:《亚洲能源一体化“一带一路”能源互联互通的前景探析》,《开发性金融研究》2017年第3期,第37—44页。
(1)NASA,"NASA's Fermi Traces Source of Cosmic Neutrino to Monster Black Hole," Jul 12,2018,https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-fermi-traces-sourceof-cosmic-neutrino-to-monster-black-hole.
(1)阎学通、阎梁:《国际关系分析》,北京大学出版社,2008年,第87页。
(1)杨学山:《论信息》,北京:电子工业出版社,2014年,第280—281页。
(2)Statista,Most Popular Social Networks Worldwide as of July 2020,Ranked by Number of Active Users,July 2020,https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/.
(1)中国信息通信研究院可信区块链推进计划:《区块链白皮书(2018)》,北京:中国信息通信研究院,2018年。
(1)Kelley M.Sayler,"Emerging Military Technologies:Background and Issues for Congress," Congressional Research Service,November 10,2020,https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46458.
(2)John R.Hoehn and Nishawn S.Smagh,"Intelligence,Surveillance,and Reconnaissance Design for Great Power Competition," Congressional Research Service,June 4,2020,https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46389.
(3)James R.Clapper,"Statement for the Record:Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community," U.S.Senate Armed Services Committee,February 9,2016,p.9,https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/SASC_Unclassified_2016_ATA_SFR_FINAL.pdf.
(4)Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency(DARPA),Insect Allies,https://www.darpa.mil/program/insect-allies.
(1)高超音速飞行器是指飞行速度超过5倍音速(约合每小时6000公里)的飞行物体。高超音速武器可分为滑翔型和吸气式发动机推进型。参见:Kelley M.Sayler,“Hypersonic Weapons:Background and Issues for Congress,”Congressional Research Service Report,December 1,2020,https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45811.
(2)定向能武器:美国国防部将其定义为使用集中的电磁能量使对方设备、设施和/或人员丧失能力、损坏、瘫痪或摧毁。参见:Kelley M.Sayler,"Emerging Military Technologies:Background and Issues for Congress,"Congressional Research Service Report,November 10,2020,p.14,https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46458.
(3)James N.Miller and Frank A.Rose,“Bad Idea:Space-Based Interceptors and Space-Based Directed Energy Systems,” Center for Strategic and International Studies,December 13,2018,https://defense360.csis.org/bad-idea-space-based-interceptors-andspace-based-directed-energy-systems/;Justin Doubleday,“Pentagon punts MDA's Laser Ambitions,Shifts Funding Toward OSD-led 'Laser Scaling,'”Inside Defense,February 19,2020,https://insidedefense.com/daily-news/pentagon-punts-mdas-laser-ambitions-shiftsfundingtoward-osd-led-laser-scaling.
(4)Richard H.Speier et al.,Hypersonic Missile Proliferation:Hindering the Spread of a New Class of Weapons(Santa Monica,CA:RAND Corporation,2017),https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2137.html.
(1)Michael J.Biercuk and Richard Fontaine,“The Leap into Quantum Technology:A Primer for National Security Professionals,” War on the Rocks,November 17,2017,https://warontherocks.com/2017/11/leap-quantumtechnology-primer-national-security-professionals/.
(2)Edward Geist and Andrew J.Lohn,“How Might Artificial Intelligence Affect the Risk of Nuclear War?” RAND Corporation,2018,https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE296.html.
(3)P.Bracken,"The Intersection of Cyber and Nuclear War,"The Strategy Bridge,blog post,January 17,2017,As of August 15,2017.https://thestrategybridge.org/thebridge/2017/1/17/the-intersection-of-cyberand-nuclear-war.
(1)科技部:《2019年国际科学技术发展报告》,北京:科学技术文献出版社,2019年,第133页。
(2)The White House,“White House Issues Space Policy Directive 7 on Space-Based Positioning,Navigation,and Timing Systems,” January 15,2021,http://spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=56826.
(3)唐乾琛:《量子定位技术能否取代GPS?》,国际技术经济研究所,2020年5月31日,https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RbqEKHK5DNWPulmMZ8nyBw.
(4)宋培帅等:《量子定位导航技术研究与发展现状》,《激光与光电子学进展》2018年第9期,第29—43页。
(5)薛长斌等:《月球与深空探测技术新进展》,中国科学院编:《2019高技术发展报告》,北京:科学出版社,2020年,第135页。
(1)ISECG,The Global Exploration Roadmap,January 2018,https://www.globalspaceexploration.org/wordpress/wp-content/isecg/GER_2018_small_mobile.pdf.
(2)NASA,NASA's Lunar Exploration ProgramOverview,September 2020,https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/artemis_plan-20200921.pdf.
(3)唐新华:《智能决策在国家治理现代化中的应用探析》,《当代世界》2020年第3期,第73—78页。
(1)Lockheed Martin Corporation,Integrated Crisis Early Warning System(ICEWS),https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/research-labs/advanced-technologylabs/icews.html.
(2)唐新华:《人工智能在国际风险评估和决策管理中的应用框架》,《当代世界》2018年第10期。
(3)Albert J.Menkveld.“The Economics of High-frequency Trading:Taking Stock,”Annual Review of Financial Economics,Vol.8,2016,pp.1-24.
(1)Martijn Rasser and Megan Lamberth,“Taking the Helm-A National Technology Strategy to Meet the China Challenge,” Center for a New American Security,January 13,2021,https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/taking-the-helm-a-national-technologystrategy-to-meet-the-china-challenge.
(2)Hal Brands,“America Enters the Era of Technopolitik,” Bloomberg Opinion,November 6,2020,https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-06/u-sneeds-australia-sweden-south-korea-to-beat-china-in-ai-battle.
(1)Siddharth Mohandas et al.,“Designing a U.S.Digital Development Strategy,”Center for a New American Security,September 14,2020,https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/documents/CNAS-Report-HTI-Designing-a-U.S.-Digital-DevelopmentStrategy-Sept-202 0-final.pdf?mtime=20200909150134&focal=none.
(2)Robert D.Atkinson(founder and president of ITIF),“A U.S.Grand Strategy for the Global Digital Economy,” Policy Report,Information Technology and Innovation Foundation(ITIF),January 19,2021,https://itif.org/publications/2021/01/19/usgrand-strategy-global-digital-economy.
(1)UK Ministry of Defense,Multi-Domain Integration,December 2,2020,https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/multi-domain-integration-jcn-120.
(2)Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency,https://www.darpa.mil/newsevents/air-space-total-awareness-for-rapid-tactical-execution-proposers-day.
(3)Timothy R.Gulden et al.,Modeling Rapidly Com posable,Heterogeneous,and Fractionated Forces:Findings on Mosaic Warfare from an Agent-Based Model(Santa Monica,CA:RAND Corporation,2021),https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR4396.html.
(4)Martijn Rasser,“Techno-Democratic Statecraft for Australia and the Quad,”Center for a New American Security,January 19,2021,https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/networked-techno-democratic-statecraft-fo r-australia-and-the-quad.
(5)Atlantic Council,“Adviser on Biden's Foreign Policy:Start at Home and Repair Alliances,” August 21,2020,https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/adviser-on-bidens-foreign-polic y-start-at-hom e-and-repair-alliances/.
(1)United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations,“The New Big Brother:China and Digital Authoritarianism,” July 21,2020,https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2020%20SFRC%20Minority%20Staff% 20Report% 20-% 20The% 20New%20Big% 20Brother% 20-% 20China% 20and% 20Digital% 20Authoritarianism.pdf.
(2)Yaya J.Fanusie and Emily Jin,"China's Digital Currency Adding Financial Data to Digital Authoritarianism," Center for a New American Security,January 26,2021,https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/chinas-digital-currency.
(3)Atlantic Council,“Countering China's Challenge to the Free World:A Report for the Free World Commission,” December 23,2020,https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/countering-chinas-challenge-to-the-free-world-areport-for-the-free-world-commission/.
(4)European Commission,Joint Communication to the European Parllament,The European Council and the Council:A New EU-US Agenda for Global Change,December 2,2020,https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/joint-communication-euus-agenda_en.pdf.
(1)Michael Brown,Eric Chewning and Pavneet Singh,"Preparing the United States for the Super Power Marathon with China," Brookings,April,2020,https://www.brookings.edu/research/preparing-the-united-states-for-the-superpower-marathon-with-china/.
(2)The White House,United States Strategic Approach to the People's Republic of China,May 26,2020,https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/articles/united-statesstrategic-approach-to-the-peoples-republic-of-china/.
(3)The White House,Interim National Security Strategic Guidance,March 3,2021,https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/03/interimnational-security-strategic-guidance/.
(4)Jim Garamone,"China Task Force Begins Work;DOD Makes Progress on COVID-19,” U.S.Department of Defense News,March 1,2021,https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2519254/china-task-force-begins-work-dod-makes-progress-oncovid-19/.
(1)The Senate of the United States,Democracy Technology Partnership Act,March 4,2021,https://www.warner.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/c/9/c9502023-85b4-4f7d-90db-9045237da704/18C2CE128388C4EC06C87EE8E4CEFB76.democracy-technologypartnership-act-bill-text.pdf.
(2)Martijn Rasser,"The US Needs a New TechnoDemocratic Statecraft Start With5G,"Center for a New American Security,August 3,2020,https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/the-us-needs-a-new-techno-democratic-statec raft-start-with-5g.
(3)Kristen A.Cordell and Kristine Lee," Harnessing Multilateralism for Digital Development," Center for a New American Security,January 12,2021,https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/harnessing-multilateralism-for-digital-development.
(4)Martijn Rasser et al.,"Common Code-An Alliance Framework for Democratic Technology Policy,"Center for a New American Security,October 21,2020,https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/common-code.
(5)唐新华:《西方“技术联盟”:构建科技新霸权的战略路径》,《现代国际关系》2021年第1期。
(1)Jared Cohen and Richard Fontaine,“Uniting the Techno-Democracies:How to Build Digital Cooperation,”Foreign Affairs,November/December 2020,https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-13/uniting-techno-democracies.
(2)CSIS Working Group on Trust and Security in 5G Networks,“Criteria for Security and Trust in Telecommunications Networks and Services,” Center for Strategic &International Studies,May 13,2020,https://www.csis.org/analysis/criteria-securityand-trust-telecommunications-networks-and-services.
(3)Jared Cohen and Richard Fontaine.“Uniting the Techno-Democracies:How to Build Digital Cooperation,“Foreign Affairs,November/December 2020,https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-10-13/uniting-techno-democracies.
(4)加入T-12包括美国、法国、德国、日本、英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、韩国、芬兰、瑞典以及可能加入的印度和以色列。未来计划纳入意大利、荷兰、巴西、智利、肯尼亚、尼日利亚、南非等国家。
(5)CNAS,“Networked:Techno-Democratic Statecraft for Australia and the Quad,”January 19,2021,https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/networked-techno-democraticstatecraft-for-australia-and-the-quad.
(6)Lindsey W.Ford and James Goldgeier,“Retooling Americas Alliances to Manage the China Challenge,” Brookings,January 25,2021,https://www.brookings.edu/research/retooling-americas-alliances-to-manage-the-china-challenge/.
(1)唐新华:《西方“技术联盟”:构建科技新霸权的战略路径》,《现代国际关系》2021年第1期。
(2)CSIS Working Group on Trust and Security in 5G Networks,“Criteria for Security and Trust in Telecommunications Networks and Services,” Center for Strategic &International Studies,May 13,2020,https://www.csis.org/analysis/criteria-securityand-trust-telecommunications-networks-and-services.
(1)CNAS,“Common Code An Alliance Framework for Democratic Technology Policy,” October 21,2020,https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/docu ments/Common-Code-An-Alliance-Framework-for-Democratic-Technology-Policy-1.pdf?mtime=20201020174236&focal=none.
(2)ATIS,“New Founding Members Strengthen ATIS Next G Alliance as It Sets the Course to Advance North American 6G Leadership,” November 12,2020,https://www.atis.org/press-releases/new-founding-members-strengthen-atis-next-g-alliance-as-it-setsthe-course-to-advance-north-american-6g-leadership/.
(3)William Nordhaus,“The Climate Club:How to Fix a Failing Global Effort,”Foreign Affairs,May/June 2020,https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/unitedstates/2020-04-10/climate-club.
(4)U.S.Cyberspace Solarium Commission Final Report,March 2020,https://www.solarium.gov/report.
(1)Bureau of Industry and Security,“Foreign-Produced Direct Product Rule,” U.S.Department of Commerce,https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/licensing/reexportsand-offshore-transactions/direct-p ublic-guidelines.
(2)U.S.Department of States," Secretary Michael R.Pompeo at a Press Availability," April 29,2020,https://2017-2021.state.gov/secretary-michael-r-pompeo-at-apress-availability-4/index.html.
(3)唐新华:《美国对华科技遏制战略趋势观察》,《中国信息安全》2020年第 8期。
(4)The White House,Interim National Security Strategic Guidance,March 3,2021,https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/03/interimnational-security-strategic-guidance/.
(5)The Working Group on Science and Technology in U.S.China Relations,“Meeting the China Challenge:A New American Strategy for Technology Competition,"November 16,2020,https://asiasociety.org/sites/default/files/inline files/report_meeting the china challenge_2020.pdf.
(6)Joshua P.Meltzer,Cameron F.Kerry and Alex Engler,“The Importance and Opportunities of Transatlantic Cooperation on AI,”Brookings,June 17,2020,https://www.brookings.edu/research/the importance and opportunities of transatlantic cooperation on AI/.
(1)Martijn Rasser et al.,“Transcript from Common Code:An Alliance Framework for Democratic Technology Policy,”Center for a New American Security,October 21,2020,https://www.cnas.org/publications/transcript/transcript-from-common-code-an-allianceframework-for-democratic-technology-policy.
(2)Tom Stefanick,"The State of U.S.-China Quantum Data Security Competition,"Brookings,September 18,2020,https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/the-state-ofu-s-china-quantum-data-security-competition/.
(3)The White House,A Strategic Vision for American's Quantum Networks,February 2020,https://www.quantum.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/A-StrategicVision-for-Americas-Quantum-Networks-Feb-2020.pdf.
(4)William J.Lynn Ⅲ,"Defending a New Domain:The Pentagon's Cyberstrategy,"Foreign Affairs,September/October 2010,https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/201 0-0 9-01/defending-new-domain.
(5)Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency(DARPA),DARPA’s Ocean of Things(OoT)Program,August 15,2020,https://oceanofthings.darpa.mil/.
(1)Erich Frandrup,“Embracing Underseas Robots:A US Strategy to Maintain Underseas Superiority in an Age of Unmanned Systems,” Atlantic Council,November 3,2020,https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/embracingunderseas-robots/.
(2)The White House,National Space Policy United States of America,December 9,2020,https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/National-Space-Policy.pdf.
(3)The White House Space Council,National Strategy for Planetary Protection,December 2020,https://aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-01/Planetary%20Protec tion%20Strategy%2030Dec20.pdf.
(4)Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy,Report to Congress Department of Defense Arctic Strategy.U.S.Department of Defense,June 2019,https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jun/06/2002141657/1/1/1/2019DODARCTICSTRATEGY.PDF.
(1)The Arctic,“Russia Starts Building Highspeed Arctic Internet,” November 19,2020,https://arctic.ru/infrastructure/20201119/987624.html.
(2)U.S.Department of Defense,Nuclear Deterrence:America's Foundation and Backstop for National Defense,April 6,2020,https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/policy/dod/nuclear-deterrence_foundation-backstop-for-national-defense_20200406.pdf.
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(4)John Keller,“Future Millimeter Wave 5G Wireless Communications Offer Military New Applications to Transform Operations,” Military Aerospace Electronics,October 30,2020,https://www.militaryaerospace.com/communications/article/14186438/5gcommunicationsmillimeterwave.
(1)Thomas G.Mahnken,Travis Sharp and Grace B.Kim,"Deterrence by Detection:A Key Role for Unmanned Aircraft Systems in Great Power Competition,"Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments(CSBA),April 14,2020,https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/deterrencebydetectionakeyroleforunmannedaircrafts ystemsingreatpowercompetition/publication/1.
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(6)Colin Clark,“Air Force Sec Says US May Demo New Space Weapon To Deter,”Breaking Defense,April 11,2019,https://breakingdefense.com/2019/04/air-force-secsays-us-may-demo-new-space-weapon-to-deter/.
(1)Colin Clark,“Air Force Sec Says US May Demo New Space Weapon To Deter,”Breaking Defense,April 11,2019,https://breakingdefense.com/2019/04/air-force-secsays-us-may-demo-new-space-weapon-to-deter/.
(2)Robert O.Work,“A Joint Warfighting Concept for Systems Warfare,” Center for a New American Security,December 17,2020,https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/a-j oint-warfighting-concept-fo r-systems-warfare.
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(4)阎学通:《超越地缘战略思维》,《国际政治科学》2019年第4期,第4—7页。
基本信息:
DOI：10.16513/j.cnki.qjip.2021.0011
中图分类号:D035
引用信息:
[1]唐新华.技术政治时代的权力与战略[J].国际政治科学,2021,6(02):59-89.DOI:10.16513/j.cnki.qjip.2021.0011.
2021-05-06
2021-05-06
2021-05-06