| 6,891 | 159 | 147 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
2019年拉开了中美两国竞争格局的序幕,此次的中美竞争与冷战时期的美苏两极竞争不同,其根本区别在于,意识形态不再是推动大国竞争的主要动力,取而代之的是中美两国在数字领域不断加剧的战略竞争。在过去的15年里,技术进步将世界推进了数字时代。数字技术的发展为国家保障安全、积累财富以及获得国际支持创造了新路径。网络安全正在成为国家安全的核心,数字经济在大国国内生产总值(GDP)中所占的比重大幅上升。对于主要大国而言,在数字时代初期,网络空间竞争的重要性已超越了传统地缘竞争。本文认为,冷战思维和数字思维将对数字时代的外交决策产生混合影响,国家间这种对外政策的互动将会塑造一种和平但很不安定的国际秩序。在这种秩序之中,大国间的直接战争难以发生,代理人战争将会更少。这种秩序将反映全球化的负作用和全球治理的困难,例如违反协议、相互欺骗、网络攻击以及技术脱钩等国际现象。数字技术的不断发展必然从多方面改变国际政治,但是中美两国竞争格局将可能持续20年,以至更久。
Abstract：(1)“In‘World of Disquiet’,UN Must Deliver for the People,Guterres Tells General Assembly，”24 September,2019,https：//news.un.org/en/story/2019/09/1047172．
(2)Geoff Dyer，“US vs China:Is This the New Cold War？”Financial Times,20February,2014,https：//www.douban.com/group/topic/49391156/．
(3)人民网：《达巍：中美或滑向“新冷战”需建立长期稳定框架》，2015年6月6日，http：//world.people.com.cn/n/2015/0606/c1002-27113810.html.
(1)Zhao Minghao，“Is a New Cold War Inevitable?Chinese Perspective on US-China Strategic Competition，”Chinese Journal of International Politics,Vol.12,No.3,2019,pp.373-374．
(2)The White House，“A New National Security Strategy for a New Era，”18December,2017,https：//www.whitehouse.gov/articles/new-national-security-strategynew-era/．
(3)Alex Ward，“Pence Says US‘Will not Back Down’from China’s Aggression in Fiery Speech，”4 October,2018,https：//www.vox.com/2018/10/4/17936514/pencechina-speech-text-hudson．
(4)Ibid．
(5)Charles Edel and Hal Brands，“The Real Origins of the US-China Cold War，”Foreign Policy,2June,2019,https：//foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/02/the-real-originsof-the-u-s-china-cold-war-big-think-communism/．
(1)Finbarr Bermingham and Wendy Wu，“China and US in New‘Cold War’that is‘More Difficult’than Soviet-era,Says Former US Ambassador to China，”South China Morning Post,21 September,2019,https：//www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3029735/china-and-us-new-cold-war-more-difficult-soviet-era-says．
(2)Yan Xuetong，“Trump Can’t Start a Cold War with China,Even If He Wants to，”The Washington Post,7 February,2018,https：//www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/02/06/china-trump/．
(3)Odd Arne Westad，“The Sources of Chinese Conduct:Are Washington and Beijing Fighting a New Cold War？”Foreign Affairs,Vol.98,No.5,2019,p.87．
(4)Gregory Mitrovich，“A New Cold War?Not Quite:The U.S.Shouldn’t Worry about a Cold War with China-Yet，”The Washington Post,21 March,2019,https：//www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/03/21/new-cold-war-not-quite/．
(1) Yan Xuetong，“The Age of Uneasy Peace，”Foreign Affairs,Vol.98,No.1,2019,pp.40-46.
(1)“The World’s Biggest Defence Budgets in 2019，”13June,2019,https：//www.army-technology.com/features/biggest-military-budgets-world/．
(1)“Projected GDP Ranking (2019-2024），”Statistics Times,13 November,2019,http：//statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php．
(2)环球网：《中国驻外使领馆总数超过美国成为全球第一》，2020年1月8日，https：//world.huanqiu.com/article/3wXBGaQfaWk。
(3)Chen Weihua，“US Should Stop Forcing Nations to Take Sides，”China Daily Global,25June,2019,http：//global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201906/25/WS5d117315a3103dbf14329fe4.html．
(4)Emmanuel Macron，“Ambassadors’Conference-Speech by M.Emmanuel Macron,President of the Republic，”27 August,2019,https：//lv.ambafrance.org/Ambassadors-conference-Speech-by-M-Emmanuel-Macron-President-of-the-Republic．
(5)Ibid.
(1)“Trump Ready to‘Solve’North Korea Problem without China，”3 April,2017,https：//www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39475178．
(2)“North Korea Missiles:US Warships Deployed to Korean Peninsula，”9April,2017,https：//www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39542990．
(3)Christopher P.Cavas，“Nothing to See Here:US Carrier Still Thousands of Miles from Korea，”Defense News,17 April,2017,https：//www.defensenews.com/naval/2017/04/17/nothing-to-see-here-us-carrier-still-thousands-of-miles-from-korea/．
(4)“Trump Fears‘Major,Major Conflict’with North Korea，”28 April,2017,https：//www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39741671．
(5)Ted Kemp，“North Korea Hydrogen Bomb:Read the Full Announcement from Pyongyang，”3 September,2017,https：//www.cnbc.com/2017/09/03/north-koreahydrogen-bomb-read-the-full-announcement-from-pyongyang.html．
(6)The White House，“Joint Statement of President Donald J.Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea at the Singapore Summit，”12June,2018,https：//www.whitehouse.gov/briefingsstatements/joint-statement-president-donald-j-trump-united-states-america-chairman-kimjong-un-democratic-peoples-republic-korea-singapore-summit/．
(1)Florence Schulz，“How Strong Is Right-Wing Populism after the European Elections？”Euractive,4June,2019,https：//www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/how-strong-is-right-wing-populism-after-the-european-elections/．
(2)Fan Di，“Reflecting on Deng Xiaoping’s‘Cat Theory’of Economic Reform，”The Epoch Times,18 October,2016,https：//www.theepochtimes.com/reflecting-ondeng-xiaopings-cat-theory-of-economic-reform_2173740.html．
(3)“President Xi Says China Will Not Export Its Political System，”1December,2017,https：//www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parties/president-xi-says-china-will-notexport-its-political-system-idUSKBN1DV4UM．
(4)Walter Russell Mead，“Mike Pence Announces Cold War II，”Wall Street Journal,8 October,2018,https：//www.wsj.com/articles/mike-pence-announces-coldwar-ii-1539039480.
(1)Amitai Etzioni，“China is Not the Soviet Union，”The National Interest,13August,2018,https：//nationalinterest.org/feature/china-not-soviet-union-28642．
(2)Ibid．
(3)Lily Rothman，“The Long History behind Donald Trump’s‘America First’Foreign Policy，”Time,28 March,2016,https：//time.com/4273812/america-firstdonald-trump-history/．
(4)Max Boot，“Why Would Any Ally Trust the United States Ever Again？”The Washington Post,6 September,2018,https：//www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/why-would-any-ally-trust-the-united-states-ever-again/2018/09/05/8c8e093eb125-11e8-aed9-001309990 777_story.html.
(1)World Bank,National Accounts Data and OECD National Accounts Data Files,https：//data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2019&most_recent_value_desc=true&start=2008，访问时间：2020年12月14日。
(2)United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,Digital Economic Report 2019:Value Creation and Capture Implications for Developing Countries(Geneva:United Nations,2019),p.xvii.
(1)Huawei and Oxford Economics,Digital Spillover-Measuring the True Impact of the Digital Economy (Oxford:Huawei Technologies Co.,Ltd.,2017),p.8,https：//www.huawei.com/minisite/gci/en/digital-spillover/files/gci_digital_spillover.pdf．
(2)Ibid.,p.6．
(3)Yuji Miura，“China’s Digital Economy-Assessing Its Scale,Development Stage,Competitiveness,and Risk Factors，”Pacific Business and Industry,Vol.18,No.70,2018,p.7．
(4)中国经济网：《2018年中国数字经济规模达到31.3万亿元》，2019年4月18日，http：//www.ce.cn/cysc/tech/gd2012/201904/18/t20190418_31890416.shtml．
(5)United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,Digital Economic Report 2019:Value Creation and Capture Implications for Developing Countries (Geneva:United Nations,2019),p.2.
(1)World Bank，“World Development Indicators Database，”23December,2019,https：//databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf．
(2)The US Bureau of Economic Analysis，“Measuring the Digital Economy:An Update Incorporating Data from the 2018 Comprehensive Update of the Industry Economic Accounts，”April 2019,https：//www.bea.gov/system/files/2019-04/digitaleconomy-report-update-april-2019_1.pdf．
(3)Andrew Bloomenthal，“World’s Top 10Internet Companies，”Investopedia,25June,2019,https：//www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/030415/worldstop-10-Internet-companies.asp．
(4)John Hannah，“US Deterrence in the Middle East is Collapsing，”Financial Times,30October,2019,https：//foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/30/u-s-deterrence-in-themiddle-east-is-collapsing-syria-iran-saudi-arabia-trump/．
(1)Abhijit Ahaskar，“How Cyberattacks Are Being Used by States Against Each Other，”21June,2019,https：//www.livemint.com/technology/tech-news/how-cyber attacks-are-being-used-by-states-against-each-other-1561100711834.html．
(2)Robert Williams，“In the Balance:The Future of America’s National Security and Innovation Ecosystem，”30 November,2018,https：//www.lawfareblog.com/balance-future-americas-national-security-and-innovation-ecosystem．
(3)习近平：《在网络安全和信息化工作座谈会上的讲话》，《人民日报》2016年4月26日，第3版。
(4)Tracy You and Joe Pinkstone，“China Announces It Will Complete Its￡7Billion Global Satellite Navigation System Beidou-Which Rivals US-Made GPS-Next Year，”10December,2019,https：//www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7776571/Chinaannounces-complete-GPS-rival-Beidou-global-satellite-navigation-2020.html．
(5)“China Greenlights Establishment of Root Server，”8December,2019,http：//english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/ministries/201912/08/content_WS5dec361ec6d0bcf8c4c1882d.html.
(1)Qualcomm Technologies，“eMTC and NB-IoT，”2 August,2017,https：//medium.com/iotforall/emtc-and-nb-iot-2339dd3833e1．
(2)Sheryl Tian and Tong Lee，“ChinaRacesAheadoftheU.Si.ntheBattlefor5GSupremacy，”Bloomberg,2 August,2019,https：//www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-01/china-bets-on-5g-socialism-in-push-to-lead-global-tech-race．
(3)央视网：《习近平：坚持总体国家安全观走中国特色国家安全道路》，2014年4月15日，http：//news.cntv.cn/2014/04/15/ARTI1397555139165923.shtml
(4)The White House，“National Security Strategy of the United States of America，”December 2017,https：//www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf，访问时间：2020年10月26日。
(5)Peter Navarro，“Why Economic Security is National Security？”9 December,2018,https：//www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/12/09/why_economic_security_is_national_security_138875.html;Anthea Roberts,Henrique Choer Moraes and Victor Ferguson，“Geoeconomics:The US Strategy of Technological Protection and Economic Security，”11 December,2018,https：//www.lawfareblog.com/geoeconomics-us-strategytechnological-protection-and-economic-security.
(1) Mahita Gajanan，“Middle-Aged Americans Spend More Time on Social Media than Millennials，”26January,2017,https：//fortune.com/2017/01/25/social-mediamillennials-generation-x/．
(1)Julia Horowitz，“Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou Arrested in Canada,Faces Extradition to United States，”6December,2018,https：//edition.cnn.com/2018/12/05/tech/huawei-cfo-arrested-canada/index.html．
(2)“Huawei Has Been Cut Off from American Technology，”The Economist,25May,2019,https：//www.economist.com/business/2019/05/25/huawei-has-been-cutoff-from-american-technology．
(3)Julian E.Barnes and Adam Satariano，“US Campaign to Ban Huawei Overseas Stumbles as Allies Resist，”The New York Times,17 March,2019,https：//www.nytimes.com/2019/03/17/us/politics/huawei-ban.html．
(4)Melvyn P.Leffler，“China Isn’t the Soviet Union.Confusing the Two Is Dangerous，”2 December,2019,https：//www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/12/cold-war-china-purely-optional/601969/．
(1)Stu Woo，“Facing Pushback from Allies,US Set for Broader Huawei Effort，”The Wall Street Journal,23January,2020,https：//www.wsj.com/articles/facingpushback-from-allies-u-s-set-for-broader-huawei-effort-11579775403．
(2)杨德山：《把抓好党建作为最大的政绩》，《人民日报》2016年7月27日，第1版。
(3)习近平：《在网络安全和信息化工作座谈会上的讲话》，《人民日报》2016年4月26日，第3版。
(1)习近平：《致首届数字中国建设峰会的贺信》，《人民日报》2018年4月23日，第1版。
(2)“WIPO 2018IP Services:Innovators File Record Number of International Patent Applications,With Asia Now Leading，”World Intellectual Property Organization,19March,2019,https：//www.wipoi.nt/pressroom/en/articles/2019/article_0004.html．
(3)钟源：《六部委联合发文扩大高校和科研院所科研自主权》，人民网转自《经济参考报》，2019年8月22日，http：//finance.people.com.cn/n1/2019/0822/c1004-31310039.html。
(4)卢泽华：《数字丝路，为世界发展提速》，《人民日报海外版》2018年4月30日，http：//world.people.com.cn/GB/n1/2018/0430/c1002-29958235.html。
(5)Dan Sabbagh and Peter Walker，“UK Prepares to Defy US by Allowing Huawei to Supply 5G Kit，”The Guardian,23January,2020,https：//www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jan/23/government-hints-huawei-given-role-uk-5g-network.
(1)Leo Lewis,Kana Inagaki and Mehreen Khan，“Japan and EU Sign Trade Deal in Move Against Protectionism，”Financial Times,17July,2018,https：//www.ft.com/content/bd100de0-89b2-11e8-b18d-0181731a0340．
(2)Catherine Wong，“Trade War‘Pushes Rivals China and Japan Closer’-on Imports,Talks and Overseas Infrastructure，”South China Morning Post,19September,2018,https：//www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2164900/trade-war-pushesrivals-china-and-japan-closer-imports-talks．
(3)“US Anger at Britain Joining Chinese-Led Investment Bank AIIB，”The Guardian,12 March,2015,https：//www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/mar/13/white-housepointedly-asks-uk-to-use-its-voice-as-part-of-chinese-led-bank．
(4)Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank，“Members and Prospective Members of the Bank，”AIIB,10 March,2020,https：//www.aiib.org/en/about-aiib/governance/members-of-bank/index.html．
(5)“US Officially Labels China a‘Currency Manipulator’，”6 August,2019,https：//www.bbc.com/news/business-49244702.
(1)John Gramlich and Kat Devlin，“More People Around the World See US Power and Influence as a‘Major Threat’to Their Country，”Pew Research Center,14February,2019,https：//www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/14/more-people-aroundthe-world-see-u-s-power-and-influence-as-a-major-threat-to-their-country/．
(2)Dave Lawler，“The Threat from America，”4 August,2018,https：//www.axios.com/the-biggest-global-threats-us-russia-china-c3230b2c-447e-472a-b9dc-5b2a2e2b3117.html．
(3)Jim Townsend，“Trump’s Defense Cuts in Europe Will Backfire，”Foreign Policy,17 September,2019,https：//foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/17/trumps-defensecuts-in-europe-will-backfire/．
(4)Robin Emmott and Michel Rose，“NATO Experiencing‘Brain Death’,France’s Macron Says，”8 November,2019,https：//www.reuters.com/article/us-germanynato/nato-experiencing-brain-death-frances-macron-says-idUSKBN1XH2KA．
(5)Matthijs Rooduijn，“Why Is Populism Suddenly All the Rage？”The Guardian,17February,2019,https：//wwwt.heguardian.com/world/political-science/2018/nov/20/why-ispopulism-suddenly-so-sexy-the-reasons-are-many;Peter Lemiska，“Antiestablishmentism-the New Racism，”American Thinker,31 March,2016,https：//www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/03/antiestablishmentism__the_new_racism.html.
(1) Emmanuel Macron，“Ambassadors’Conference-Speech by M.Emmanuel Macron,President of the Republic，”27 August,2019,https：//lv.ambafrance.org/Ambassadors-conference-Speech-by-M-Emmanuel-Macron-President-of-the-Republic.
(1)“European Union Seminar:A Europe Fit for the Digital Age，”11February,2020,https：//rcc.harvard.edu/event/european-union-seminar-europe-fit-digital-age．
(2)“Vietnam Shuns Huawei as It Seeks to Build Southeast Asia’s First 5GNetwork，”South China Morning Post,27 August,2019,https：//www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3024479/vietnam-shuns-huawei-it-seeks-build-aseans-first-5g．
(3)“US Won’t Be World’s‘Policeman’,Trump Says during Surprise Visit to Iraq，”The Straits Times,27December,2018,https：//www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/in-a-first-trump-makes-surprise-visit-to-us-troops-in-iraq.
(1)Fan Jishe，“Trilateral Negotiations on Arms Control?Not Time Yet，”China&USFocus,13September,2019,https：//www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/trilateralnegotiations-on-arms-control-not-time-yet．
(2)Lu Yang，“Munich Security Conference Closes without Consensus on‘Westlessness’，”17February,2020,http：//www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138789366.html．
(3)Jacob Poushter and Christine Huang，“Despite Some Improvements,Americans and Germans Remain Far Apart in Views of Bilateral Relations，”Pew Research Center,25 November,2019,https：//www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/11/25/americansand-germans-remain-far-apart-in-views-of-bilateral-relations-2/．
(1)Lise Alves，“Brazil Agrees to Surrender Special WTO Status for OECD Entry，”20 March,2019,https：//riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-politics/brazil-agrees-tosurrender-special-wto-status-for-oecd-entry/．
(2)The World Bank，“The World Bank in Singapore，”https：//www.worldbank.org/en/country/singapore/overview．
(3)Alex Wayne，“Trump Wants to Strip China of Its‘Developing Nation’WTOStatus，”27July,2019,https：//www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/trump-strip-china-developingnation-wto-status-190726205231578.html．
(4)United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,Digital Economy Report2019-Value Creation and Capture:Implications for Developing Countries (Geneva:United Nations,2019),p.xv,https：//unctad.org/en/Pages/DTL/STI_and_ICTs/ICT4D-Report.aspx．
(5)“Democracy Index 2019，”The Economist,27 January,2020,http：//statisticstimes.com/ranking/democracy-index.php.
(1)Adrian Venables，“Establishing Cyber Sovereignty-Russia Follows China’s Example，”The International Center for Defense and Security,20March,2019,https：//icds.ee/establishing-cyber-sovereignty-russia-follows-chinas-example/．
(2)Nicole Lindsey，“Cyber Governance Issues Take on High-Profile Status at the UN，”CPO Magazine,14 October,2019,https：//www.cpomagazine.com/cybersecurity/cyber-governance-issues-take-on-high-profile-status-at-the-un/．
(3)Alexis Papazoglou，“Trump Has a Peculiar Definition of Sovereignty，”The Atlantic,28September,2019,https：//www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/trumps-undemocratic-obsession-with-sovereignty/598822/．
(4)John Eggerton，“Pompeo:Huawei Tech Threatens National Sovereignty，”27January,2020,https：//www.multichannel.com/news/pompeo-huawei-tech-threatensnational-sovereignty．
(5)Justin Sherman，“How Much Cyber Sovereignty is Too Much Cyber Sovereignty？”Council on Foreign Relations,30 October,2019,https：//www.cfr.org/blog/how-much-cyber-sovereignty-too-much-cyber-sovereignty．
(6)Kenneth Propp，“Waving the Flag of Digital Sovereignty，”New Atlanticist,11December,2019,https：//www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/waving-theflag-of-digital-sovereignty/．
(7)William Horobin and Aoife White，“How‘Digital Tax’Plans in Europe Hit USTech，”The Washington Post,2December,2019,https：//www.washingtonpost.com/business/how-digital-tax-plans-in-europe-hit-us-tech/2019/12/02/f357b0aa-1558-11ea-80d6-d0ca7007273f_story.html.
(1)Robert Sledz，“Israel Preparing Digital Services Tax Modeled Off Pending French Proposal，”7 May,2019,https：//tax.thomsonreuters.com/blog/israel-preparingdigital-services-tax-modelled-off-pending-french-proposal/．
(2)Liu Zhen，“BeiDou,China’s Answer to GPS，‘Six Months ahead of Schedule’after Latest Satellite Launch，”South China Morning Post,6November,2019,https：//www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3036529/beidou-chinas-answer-gps-six-monthsahead-schedule-after-latest．
(3)Li Wei，“Towards Economic Decoupling?Mapping Chinese Discourse on the US-China Trade War，”Chinese Journal of International Politics,Vol.12,No.4,2019,p.549．
(4)Guy Buesnel，“Galileo’s Week-Long Outage is a Wake-Up Call for All GNSSUsers，”24 July,2019,https：//www.linkedin.com/pulse/galileos-week-long-outagewake-up-call-all-gnss-users-guy-buesnel?articleId=6559728516072644609．
(5)Jane Wakefield，“Russia‘Successfully Tests’Its Unplugged Internet，”24December,2019,https：//www.bbc.com/news/technology-50902496.
(1)Yan Xuetong,Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers (Princeton:Princeton University Press,2019),pp.113-4．
(2)Jason Gutierrez,Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Eric Schmitt，“Philippines Tells USIt Will End Military Cooperation Deal，”The New York Times,11February,2020,https：//www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/world/asia/philippines-united-states-duterte.html．
(3)Yojana Sharma，“Hundreds of Chinese Scholars Face US Visa Restrictions，”23April,2019,https：//www.universityworldnewsc.om/post.php?story=20190423120547316.
基本信息:
DOI：10.16513/j.cnki.qjip.2021.0003
中图分类号:D822.371.2
引用信息:
[1]阎学通,徐舟.数字时代初期的中美竞争[J].国际政治科学,2021,6(01):24-55.DOI:10.16513/j.cnki.qjip.2021.0003.
2020-12-31
2020-12-31
2020-12-31